Bitcoin has experienced a recent three-day drop of 11.8%, following the Federal Reserve's remarks of 'not allowing the holding of Bitcoin' and 'not incorporating Bitcoin into the balance sheet'. Since 2021, El Salvador, currently holding 5969 Bitcoins, has been purchasing one Bitcoin every day, but under the long-standing urging of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), plans to reduce its Bitcoin plan. It intends to make accepting Bitcoin payments by businesses voluntary while implementing measures to reduce government deficits in exchange for IMF loans. This is undoubtedly a significant bearish signal, and last night's accelerated drop in Bitcoin is likely a result of this.
Looking at the positive side, several bullish factors that have been priced in for Bitcoin have already materialized. Barring any major black swan events, it should consolidate within the current price range. From a technical analysis perspective, even though Bitcoin's daily chart has fallen below EMA20, it is still above EMA50, with a significant order wall at 92500-95000 providing support. However, once this support is breached, Bitcoin is likely to fall back to around 80000 to fill the CME spot gap.
Here is a recommended investment strategy for Bitcoin, using the Ahr999 index for Dollar-Cost Averaging. Accumulate Bitcoin in spot positions below the DCA line and buy the dips in the long term. Once Bitcoin exceeds the DCA line, gradually sell off. This can be a good method. However, for investors in a one-sided market, this approach may not be suitable. Perhaps starting to accumulate Bitcoin through DCA from today's price could also be a good timing.
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